Dive Brief:
- Job growth will probably persist even as the economy weakens during the second and third quarters this year, the Conference Board said, citing its leading indicator for hiring.
- Five of the eight components in the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rose in March, aligning with a survey by the research organization highlighting that most CEOs said they expect to increase or maintain their current workforce.
- “The index remains above its pre-pandemic level and is still consistent with continued employment growth,” Will Baltrus, an associate economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “Demand for labor remains strong.”
Dive Insight:
Employers expanded payrolls last month by a higher-than-forecast 303,000 for the biggest gain in 10 months, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8% from 3.9% in February.
“Payroll employment increased at a very strong pace in the first quarter,” Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday, noting that a rise in part-time work and increased immigration likely fueled the growth.
“The labor market will remain strong but with labor demand and supply gradually rebalancing as the number of job openings relative to unemployed workers declines,” Bowman said in a speech.
Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% last month on an annual basis for the lowest gain since June 2021, the Labor Department said.
“The easing in wage inflation alongside solid job growth reflects the supply-side improvement in the labor market,” Ginger Chambless, head of research for commercial banking at JPMorgan Chase, said Monday in a client note.
Job gains in March broadened for the fourth straight month into construction, retailing and other services that do not face the severe labor shortages of healthcare, leisure and hospitality and other sectors, Baltrus said.
“These continued payroll gains outside of the major labor-shortage-threatend industries point to a resilient overall labor market,” he said.
“For the moment, employment will likely continue to grow or, at worst, flatten,” Baltrus said.
The leading indicators in the Conference Board’s employment index include initial claims for unemployment insurance, job openings, industrial production and the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry.
The index has fallen since its peak in March 2022, yet the decline has slowed since August and remains above the level before the outbreak of the coronavirus, Baltrus said.
The outlook is less bright among small businesses, according to a report Thursday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The share of small enterprises in March planning to create new jobs in the next three months fell to the lowest level since May 2020.
