Dive Brief:

• The U.S. economy will probably grow 2.3% in 2025, spurred in part by improving credit conditions, rising stock prices and increasing average hours worked in manufacturing, the Conference Board said Wednesday.
• “We expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager for business cycle indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement, noting “fewer headwinds to U.S. economic activity ahead.”
• The outlook is not entirely sunny, the Conference Board said, noting that its Leading Economic Index edged down 0.1% last month after gaining 0.4% in November. Weak manufacturing orders, declining building permits, an increase in unemployment claims and low consumer confidence pose risks to growth, the Conference Board said.

Dive Insight:

Several organizations have recently singled out the U.S. as an especially promising economy in 2025.

The International Monetary Fund on Friday forecast that U.S. GDP will expand 2.7% this year, only a slight slowing from its estimate of 2.8% growth in 2024.

“Underlying demand remains robust, reflecting strong wealth effects, a less restrictive monetary policy stance and supportive financial conditions,” the IMF said in a report, noting that it upgraded its U.S. 2025 growth forecast by a half percentage point compared with a projection in October.

The upgrade partly reflects “carryover from 2024 as well as robust labor markets and accelerating investment, among other signs of strength,” the IMF said.

The World Economic Forum on Thursday also described bright prospects for the economy in a report on the outlook among chief economists.

“The U.S. economy is expected to deliver robust growth in 2025,” the forum said.

Nearly half of economists surveyed (47%) expect the policies of President Donald Trump to fuel short-term growth, the forum said. However, the proportion falls to 27% and 18% over the medium-term and long-term, respectively, the forum said.

The chief economists expect Trump to push through significant changes in trade, migration, deregulation, fiscal policy, deregulation, industrial policy and foreign policy, the forum said. “The only policy area in which respondents do not expect significant change is monetary policy,” according to the report. 

Chief economists believe Trump will likely bring the biggest changes to U.S. policies in trade, migration and foreign relations, according to the forum. Ninety-four percent of the chief economists believe that inflation will accelerate under Trump.

“Key elements that could be expected to drive prices higher include the stimulus effect of lower taxes, expected by 91% of chief economists, and the impact on wages and prices of the labor supply shock that would result from a maximal implementation of a promised program of mass deportations,” the forum said. Higher tariffs would also increase price pressures, it said.

From a global standpoint, the start of the second Trump administration should be viewed as “an inflection point for the political and economic order, consolidating trends that have been gathering momentum in many countries since the global financial crisis” from 2007 until 2009, the forum said.

“The outlook for the global economy remains subdued and downside risks have intensified, not least because of heightened uncertainty around the economic implications of November’s U.S. presidential election,” the forum said.